You Call This Global Leadership?
The US government is about to be shut down in the next 24 hours over the federal budget impasse. Here are the only numbers you need:
Federal spending is approx. $3.7 trillion, the deficit this year alone is projected at $1.4 trillion – and the politicians are squabbling over spending cuts amounting to $33-40 billion; that’s 1% of spending and 2.9% of the deficit. You gotta be joking, right?
Related:
Reforming the Banks
just got back from a very interesting but hectic week in New York and Washington, followed by two days at a conference in Hangzhou. During my meetings I noticed that much of the discussion, and many of the questions I was asked by both government officials and investors, focused on debt levels and reforms in the Chinese financial system. I have written a lot about rising debt in China and am glad that analysts and policymakers seem to be spending a lot more time thinking about balance sheet issues. Every case of rapid, investment-driven growth in the past century, as far as I can make out, has at some point reached a stage in which debt levels rose to unsustainable levels and precipitated either a debt crisis or a long grinding adjustment period.
The reason debt levels always seem to grow unsustainably, I suspect, is that in the initial stages of the growth model much if not all of the investment is economically viable as it pours into building necessary infrastructure whose profits and externalities exceed the cost of the investment. The result is real growth. At some point, however, the combination of subsidies, distorted incentives (in which investment benefits accrue to those making the investment while costs are shared broadly through the banking system), and very cheap financing costs leads inexorably to wasted investment and debt rising faster than asset values. This is when the debt burden begins to rise in an unsustainable way.
Tracking Inflation: The Billion Prices Project
Data collection: our data are collected every day from online retailers using a software that scans the underlying code in public webpages and stores the relevant price information in a database. The resulting dataset contains daily prices on the full array of products sold by these retailers. Our data include information on product descriptions, package sizes, brands, special characteristics (e.g. “organic”), and whether the item is on sale or price control.
Daily Online Price Index Computation: The daily online index is an average of individual price changes across multiple categories and retailers. The index uses a basket of goods that changes over time as products appear and disappear from a retailer’s webpage. It is updated on a daily basis and leveraged to estimate annual and monthly inflation. This index is not designed to forecast official inflation announcements, but to provide real-time information on major inflation trends.
Monthly Inflation: The monthly inflation rate is the percentage change between the average of the daily online price index of the last 30 days and the average of the previous month. For example, on the last day of September 2010, we compared the average of the daily index between September 1st and September 30th to the average of the daily index between August 1st and August 31st. On the last day of each month, the value of our monthly inflation is equivalent to the monthly statistic reported by official offices.
The Constitution, President Obama and Libya
“He’s been more bold than any other president,” said Fein, who said Obama has failed to secure congressional approval for his military action in a much more brazen way than previous administrations.
“If he can wipe out the war powers authorization, why can’t he wipe out Congress’s authority to spend?” asked Fein. ” If we’re going to be a government of laws, and not descend into empire, this is Caesar crossing the Rubicon.”
Fein said a number of Congressional offices have expressed interest in his proposal.
“They actually need to defend constitutional prerogatives,” said Fein. “There’s definitely been interest on the Hill. There’s at least two dozen who have been open to the idea that this is a serious constitutional crisis.”
Lufthansa Flight Attendents Busted for Smuggling 63,000lbs of Euros into Germany
Six Lufthansa employees, including four flight attendants, have been arrested after sneaking in more than 63,000 pounds of out-of-circulation, €1 and €2 coins from China back to Germany over the last four years.
Euro coins have two color tones, gold and silver, and when the German Central Bank takes the coins out of circulation, the two colors (see picture to the left) are separated then sent to China to be melted down into scrap metal.
A wily group in China reassembled the coins rather melting them, then sent them back to Germany with four LH flight attendants serving as “mules.” Because FA’s don’t have baggage weight limits and can typically carry-on their bags and breeze through customs, they became the ideal method of transporting this discarded money. The FAs would then take the coins to the Bundesbank (only the central bank in Germany accepts damaged coins) and turn them in for bills. The bank typically does not count coin deposits under €1000 but will instead weigh the money bags without inspecting the coins. The scheme went off without a hitch for over four years.
Twitter’s Tax Break Lobbying
Twitter is well on its way to getting a tax break in San Francisco after threatening to leave the city for the suburbs.
San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors on Tuesday voted 8 to 3 to preliminarily approve a tax break that could allow Twitter to avoid tens of millions of dollars in taxes. A second vote expected next week would make the legislation official.
As I recounted in an article Monday in the Times, Twitter had said it planned to move out of San Francisco, where it is based, because of the high cost of doing business.
Amazing that Twitter, of all people, get a tax break. much more on tax break lobbying, here.
On Medicare Reform
Eugene Steuerle, a former Treasury official in both Democratic and Republican administrations, says simply, “We have a budget for a declining nation.”
Mr. Steuerle — along with his Urban Institute colleague Stephanie Rennane — has done some of the most careful work comparing Medicare taxes and benefits. They added up all the taxes people at different points on the income spectrum would pay over their working lives and then translated these amounts into a single sum, expressed in today’s dollars. Mr. Steuerle and Ms. Rennane likewise added up the value of Medicare benefits (net of premiums) that men and women could expect to receive.
Their results show that no cohort of Americans, with the possible exception of the very affluent, pays enough Medicare taxes and premiums to cover their costs. The gap is growing over time, too.
To Cut Smog, Navistar Blazes Risky Path of Its Own
Tom Zeller & Norman Mayersohn:
In a testing cell tucked deep in the bowels of Navistar’s engine plant and technical center here, a hulking prototype of a truck engine sits behind a large glass window like a patient on an operating table. A snarl of sensors and wires is attached to nearly every part of the humming engine, feeding reams of data to a battery of computers and watchful engineers in the adjacent control room.
One measurement — for nitrogen oxide emissions, or NOx — is of particular concern to Navistar. From 2010 onward, all new truck engines must achieve tough, near-zero limits for NOx, a chief ingredient of smog. Virtually every truck maker besides Navistar chose to use an add-on system to their existing engines that uses a fluid cocktail to help neutralize the pollutant as it makes its way out of the exhaust.
Navistar went a different route, deciding to invest hundreds of millions of dollars to refine an engine that produces minimal NOx in the first place. At the same time, the company attacked the competing systems, suing federal air quality regulators and claiming that the add-on technology was so flawed that it failed to meet the clean-air requirements.
Tiësto: Electronic Music’s Superstar
If we needed evidence that electronic dance music is a force in pop culture, last weekend’s Ultra Music Festival held downtown here provided it. Some 150,000 tickets were sold to the three-day event–about equal to the total for last year’s Coachella Music & Arts Festival in the desert town of Indio, Calif., and about twice the number for June’s Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival in Manchester, Tenn.
Whereas Coachella 2011, next month, will feature Arcade Fire, Kanye West, Kings of Leon and the Strokes as its rock and pop headliners, and Bonnaroo will offer Eminem, Robert Plant & Band of Joy and a reunited Buffalo Springfield (as well as Arcade Fire and the Strokes), the biggest name at Ultra Music–at least to a mainstream audience–was Duran Duran, which was here to promote its new album. But traditional measurements for rock-and-pop success are irrelevant in the electronic-dance culture. Witness Tiësto, the stage name of the Dutch disc jockey, producer and composer Tijs Michiel Verwest, the headliner on Friday, Ultra’s opening night. Though he’s never had a crossover radio hit and his solo albums sell modestly, Tiësto is a major international star, as confirmed by one familiar evaluation: His annual income apparently exceeds $20 million.