“When we see ourselves in a situation which must be endured and gone through, it is best to make up our minds to it. Meet it with firmness, and accommodate everything to it in the best way practicable. This lessens the evil, while fretting and fuming only serves to increase your own torment.” — Thomas Jefferson
We are fretting and we are fuming. As a country, we have been caught miserably flat-footed after receiving warnings about what lay ahead when cases of COVID-19 began exploding in Wuhan, China. Messages from local and state leaders about how to respond to the pandemic change almost daily — a sure sign they have no idea what they are doing. Shutdowns are happening here in California and in New York, and will probably spread to the rest of the nation.
I spent the past week taking care of patients with COVID-19 at UCLA’s flagship hospital, and the atmosphere there is, appropriately, one of crisis — like other hospitals around the country. Before we bend to the next reactionary spasms of our political leaders, let’s take a look at what we know.
Epidemiologists around the world have studied patterns of our social contacts, studied our population density and studied the COVID-19 virus’ transmission characteristics. For better or worse, we actually have a lot of data to work with, thanks to the countries that have already been struck hard. Additionally, epidemiologists have been accurately modeling disease outbreaks for years. As someone who spent extra time in medical school to earn a Ph.D. focused on economics, statistics and decision analysis, I feel confident about the epidemiologists’ projections.
Shutdowns can’t save overwhelmed hospitals
Here’s the problem: Because of the (understandable) fear and hysteria of the moment, few U.S. leaders are seriously talking about the endgame. The epidemiologic models I’ve seen indicate that the shutdowns and school closures will temporarily slow the virus’ spread, but when they’re lifted, we will essentially emerge right back where we started. And, by the way, no matter what, our hospitals will still be overwhelmed. There has already been too much community spread to prevent this inevitability.