Monthly Archives: October 2004

The Great Circle: Wisconsin Manufacturing Jobs, Leadership (or not) and Competition

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Yesterday’s news that GM would temporarily idle five SUV and pickup plants in early 2005, including Janesville amplifies the importance of:

  • People that run large organizations thinking and planning ahead. The era of large pickup truck based SUV sales & profits is apparently drawing to a close (not a big surprise with high gas prices and a recent change in the absurd large vehicle tax deduction).
  • The Japanese have a years ahead leadership position in the emerging hybrid vehicle market (gas/electric powered vehicles such as the Prius, Accord and the Toyota based Ford Escape (!) Hybrid components will likely not be coming from Wisconsin companies….
  • Peter DeLorenzo reports that Porsche has approached Toyota to purchase/license hybrid components for their 5,000lb SUV.

    From the “Hell Freezes Over” File, Automotive News Europe reported that Porsche is considering building a hybrid version of the Cayenne – using a Toyota powertrain. Readers of this site know exactly what we think about the Cayenne, but it’s clear that this is a new low in Porsche history. The company that was founded on building lithe little sports cars that bristled with innovation and the visionary thinking of its founder has now openly admitted that they have given up on the innovation game altogether.

  • Wisconsin subsidizing some of these large businesses may not pay off at all…. Jim Doyle supported $5M in state training dollars for GM Janesville recently.

Once again, the big three are behind the curve, with broad implications for Wisconsin jobs….. (it should be noted that the big three have all invested in hydrogen power, which still seems to be a long way away).

Phone spamming at the Kerry Rally…..

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Sources tell me that Kerry Rally attendees (West Washington; from the Capitol to Bassett) have been given phone numbers to call and a script to read with their personal cell phones.
In addition, the rally is evidently made up of two classes, those with “blue” tickets are next to the stage while those with “white” tickets (internet registrations) are farther away. Inside sources tell me that several “white” ticket guests have attempted to jump the barrier – and were immediately dealt with by campaign volunteers…..
In any event, I hope the music is good!
www.cnn.com has the best video stream (300kbps). Locally CBS affiliate channel 3 is also trying to stream the event, but doesn’t appear to have the servers or bandwidth that cnn does.

Nearly half of Americans are Going Online for Political News

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Latest Pew Internet Life Study:

Nearly half of Americans online have used the web to get information about the upcoming US presidential election.
That is double the number who used the net during the 2000 campaign according to research group, the Pew Internet and American Life Project.
Americans are increasingly going online for political news and commentary, its report found.
It suggests that the web is playing a positive role in democratic debate on a wide range of issues.

Hardly a surprise. The internet provides vastly deeper and more accessible information than traditional tv, radio and print media types. I’ve posted some candidate information here. Visit Wisconsinvote.org for additional data.

Senate Stock Trading – or Why they outperform the rest of us…

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Jane J. Kim:

A study suggests that U.S. senators possess stock-picking skills that even the most seasoned money manager would envy. During the boom years of the 1990s, senators’ stock picks beat the market by 12 percentage points a year on average, according to the study. Corporate insiders, meanwhile, beat the market by about six percentage points a year, while U.S. households underperformed the market by 1.4 percentage points a year on average, according to separate studies. The final details of the study will be published in the December issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.
The study’s authors, relying on financial-disclosure forms from 1993 to 1998, looked at about 6,000 common-stock transactions of about a third of the senators each year. The researchers then mimicked the senators’ transactions, buying the stocks the senators bought and selling the shares they sold. Over a six-year period, that “superportfolio” essentially beat the market by about one percentage point a month, or 12 percentage points a year.
…….
Looking at the timing of cumulative returns, the senators also appeared to know exactly when to buy or sell their holdings. Senators would buy stocks just before the shares suddenly would outperform the market by more than 25%. Conversely, senators would sell stocks that had been beating the market by about 25% for the past year just when the shares would fall back in line with the market’s performance.

I mentioned this issue in March. Via Bainbridge.