I’m pleased to offer this latest revision of the Web Video Cheat Sheet, a quick and dirty guide to sharing videos online. I’m in the process of compiling another report that examines a specific facet of the video sharing experience (more on that later). Meanwhile, I couldn’t wait to get this 61-site overview out there so folks can figure out the best place to host their most memorable (drunken) holiday moments.
Category: Investing
Ingredients of a 2007 Grand Bargain on Social Security?
So Washington is full of rumours that 2007 will bring a Grand Bargain on social security reform (see Mark Thoma’s take here and Vox Baby here). The Bush team’s plan is to sound sufficiently conciliatory and open-minded that it becomes impossible for the Democrats not to sit down and talk. That strategy just might succeed. Stonewalling is a plausible political tactic when you are in opposition (though still shamefully shortsighted). It doesn’t work so well if you are actually in charge on Capitol Hill, particularly when you announce that retirement security is one of your top legislative priorities.
Reduced Fed Transparency: Inflation on the Way?
Last year, we lamented the passing of M3 reporting. This broadest of money supply measures had shown a discomforting increase in liquidity, far greater than what M2 was revealing.
At the time of the M3 announcement, we suspected the Fed was attempting to cover their tracks, disguising an ongoing increase in money supply and an unstated “easing” in Fed bias. Since that time, we have learned: the Treasury Department was also adding liquidity — a duty they have assumed, in part, in addition to the same performed by the Fed. Indeed, based on the credit growth data Doug Noland published last month (October Credit Review), it appears that the Fed has – despite increasing interest rates – actually eased over the last two years.
Third Quarter Real Estate Market Data
Dave Stark [PDF]:
We are currently witnessing a phenomenon that I have not
seen in my nearly 30 years in real estate brokerage. For the first
time in anyone’s memory, we are seeing a noticeable slowdown in sales despite continuing record low interest rates. I’ve experienced many soft markets before; most (1980 – 1982 particularly) were far more severe than this. But all of those were precipitated by rapidly rising interest rates. This one seems to be occurring even though rates have actually fallen (that’s right, fallen) over the past 60 to 90 days by nearly two thirds of a percentage point, remaining near all time lows. At this writing, 30 year rates are around 6.375%. What’s going on?I’ve heard many explanations offered, and many have some validity. For starters, the Federal Reserve has raised short term interest rates steadily over the last two years. This has probably led many consumers to assume that mortgage rates were rising too. They did rise a little, but not much… they’re still within a percentage point or so of their lows. It’s also true, as you see below and on the following pages, that inventories have continued to rise, leading many to assume that the market is “slow,” since they see more for sale signs than they’re used to. Perhaps most importantly, the media has been relentlessly predicting a “bursting real estate bubble” for two years now, and they’ve seized on any evidence of a slowdown to fuel the gloomy predictions. While fears of a bursting bubble are utterly unfounded, especially here (see page 2), we’re hearing that many buyers are afraid to buy, thinking that real estate has become a bad investment on which they’ll lose money. A self fulfilling prophecy if ever there was one. Add in the fact that the fall is normally the slowest time of year anyway, and the market appears just plain tired after a sizzling 5 year run.
John Bogle’s Recent San Francisco Talk
Bogle believes investors should simply buy the lowest-cost index funds available and hold them forever. His rule of thumb is to take your age minus 10 and hold that percentage of your assets in a total bond market index fund and the rest in a total stock market index fund. For example, a 30-year old would put 20 percent in bonds and 80 percent in stocks.
This strategy nearly eliminates “the two greatest enemies of equity investing — expenses and emotions,” Bogle said.
Bogle’s attitudes have barely changed since he started the first index fund in August 1976.
That fund, now called Vanguard Index 500, has about $112 billion in retail assets and is the second-largest fund after American Funds’ Growth Fund of America, according to Morningstar.
Bogle wrote the excellent “Battle for the Soul of Capitalism“.
NOBEL ECONOMIST ROUNDTABLE: ON GLOBAL WARMING AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE
ON GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCES
Milken: A number of countries around the world — the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Norway, Taiwan — have built up tremendous reserves relative to the size of their country. Most of them have not made the mistake of Japan, where deploying that surplus within the country through, for example superfluous road or bridge construction, caused massive increases in prices in the 1980s.
All in all, there is at least $25 trillion worth of surpluses in the world today that is invested short-term. It is pretty hard to find anything to put a trillion dollars into except U.S. government and private bonds or mortgage-backed securities.
Where do you see this capital being deployed? Do you see it just compounding away, or do you see them following the mode maybe of Singapore where the government is creating its own industrial companies?
Quarterly Google Earnings – Blodget
Okay, Google gamblers. This one’s going to be interesting.
On the one hand, Google’s modest deceleration last quarter suggests that the company is going to once again deliver (relatively) ho-hum results and disappoint investors conditioned to expect the astounding. It takes a long time for a supertanker to change speeds or course, and, last quarter, anyway, it did seem that the Google supertanker was finally beginning to slow down. This diagnosis seemed confirmed by possible canary-in-the-coalmine announcements from advertisers who were cutting back on search spending because prices had gotten out of hand. And then there was CFO George Reyes’ lucid mid-quarter explanation of why growth had slowed in Q4–because previous growth had been accelerated by a monetization program that had now run its course. This convincing explanation kneecapped the stock for the eight hours it took for the company to issue a press release that said, effectively, George was wrong.
Seven Sins of Fund Management
There is a terrific PDF (warning — its 105 pages) on the Seven Sins of Fund Management. It is a behavioural critique by James Montier, the Global Equity Strategist of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, and its full of all sorts of smart observations, backed up with data and charts.
I haven’t read prior work of Mr. Montier — but this PDF made me interested in his book, "Behavioural Finance: A User’s Guide."
I may be referencing parts of the PDF in the future, but if you want an overview, here are the 7 Deadly Sins:
Sin 1 Forecasting
The folly of forecasting: Ignore all economists, strategists & analysts
Do analysts understand value: who is the greater fool?
Thinking Different – US Foreign Investment More Productive?
Dan Drezner writes:
Given the fact that foreigners currently have a net claim on $2.5 trillion in U.S. assets, one would expect the U.S. to be paying out a lot more in interest, dividends, and profits to foreigners than Americans would receive from their investments.
The weird thing is that, so far, this hasn’t been true. Last year the U.S. earned $36 billion more on their foreign investments than foreigners earned in the United States. The question is, why?
It turns out Americans both (seem to) make riskier investments and earn a higher return on investment. One extreme view (not Dan’s) suggests the following:
Blodget: The Bear Case for Google
Henry Blodget:
No one else is writing this piece, so it will have to be me. I should say upfront that I’m not predicting that this will happen (yet), and I’m certainly not making a recommendation. I’m just laying out a scenario that could kneecap Google and take its stock back to, say, $100 a share.Google’s major weakness is that it is almost entirely dependent on one, high-margin revenue stream. The company has dozens of cool products, but with the exception of AdWords, none of them generate meaningful revenue. From an intermediate-term financial perspective, therefore, they are irrelevant.
So, the question is, what could happen to AdWords, and what will happen to the company (and stock) if it does?
Rather ironic – and refreshing, coming from Blodget.