Category: Energy

Draining Canada First

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Petroleum and Natural Gas Watch
Michael Vickerman, RENEW Wisconsin
Vol. 5, Number 8
November 2, 2006
Sating America’s prodigious energy appetite depends on the continued availability of Canadian energy sources. About 25% of the crude oil and 80% of the natural gas imported into the United States come from our very accommodating neighbor to the north. More than half of the fuel pumped out of Canadian wells heads south to keep us Yankees warm and happily tooling about on our highways.

Even though the Canadian economy is no less dependent on hydrocarbon energy than ours, Canada has been drilling as many wells as necessary to keep the high-maintenance American economy humming. If this pedal-to-the-metal production policy were applied to a non-strategic product like, say, maple syrup, few people would care about the consequences. But there is nothing on the horizon to replace the nonrenewable high-density energy sources that Canada so generously sends our way.

This begs the question: how long can Canada go on behaving like America’s most compliant energy colony?

Not very long, according to David Hughes, a petroleum geologist with the Geological Survey of Canada. Speaking before the World Peak Oil Conference held in Boston last week, Hughes painted a remarkably pessimistic picture of Canada’s energy future, especially regarding natural gas.

(more…)

SAIC’S Robert Hirsch on Peak Oil

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Defense & The National Interest:

10/24/06 Peaking of world oil production, an update by Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor, SAIC:

Sustainability workshop, Akumal, Mex, Nov. 6 -12

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Centro Ecológico Akumal (CEA) will offer a sustainability workshop, November 6 – 12, in Akumal, Mexico.
I began volunteering for CEA in 2000, and Akumal is as close to paradise as I’ve ever experienced. Located 60 miles south of Cancun, the shallow, crystal-clear water and sandy beach of Akumal Bay define tropical perfection. Shops for renting snorkel and dive gear are right on the beach. The small, but stunning, Tulum ruins hug the sea 10 minutes south of Akumal, and the jungles hide many, many small sites that you can visit on your own or with a guide. Additionally, local guides can lead exceptional nature walks, and CEA staff give entertaining and educational presentations nightly.
The course will cover alternative technologies for the production of energy, the treatment of wastewater, and the disposal of solid waste. The course will be taught in Spanish, though nearly all of the instructors and students will be bilingual. See more details at http://www.ceakumal.org/sustainability_workshop.html.
Contact Ed Blume (ed@ceakumal.org) for more details on Akumal and tips on how to get there as cheaply as possible.

Energy Robin Hood to speak Oct. 18, Pyle Center

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Randy Udall sees himself as a modern-day Robin Hood of sorts, taking from the rich and giving to the poor. Udall heads the Community Office for Resource Efficiency in Aspen, Colorado, which oversees the world’s stiffest tax on energy use. The tax, called “REMP” or Renewable Energy Mitigation Program, requires owners of new homes larger than 5,000 square feet to pay fees of up to $100,000 for excess energy use. — The Osgood File, July 31, 2003

Randy Udall, whose father (Morris) and uncle (Stewart) were conservation giants, will discuss America’s energy challenges at 7:00 p.m. on October 18, 2006, at the Pyle Center, 702 Langdon Street, Madison.
Udall also write prolifically and insightfully on energy issues and the coming end of cheap oil. His articles include: Stud Muffins and Kilowatt-hours; When will the Joy Ride End?; Methane Madness; Cleopatra to Columbia.
He will also speak at 8:30 a.m. on the same day at the Monona Terrace during the Sustainability Energy Efficiency conference of the Wisconsin Green Building Alliance.
Sponsored by Madison Peak Oil Group, RENEW Wisconsin, Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, and Wisconsin Green Building Alliance.
Links:
Community Office for Resource Efficiency – www.aspencore.org
Madison Peak Oil Group – www.madisonpeakoil-blog.blogspot.com
RENEW Wisconsin – www.renewwisconsin.org
Gaylord Nelson Institute – www.ies.wisc.edu
Wisconsin Green Building Alliance – www.wgba.org

How Useful Are Oil Projections?

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Edward Tufte:

n 1974 the Federal Energy Administration asked 4 statisticians to provide independent estimates of the amount of oil still underground. The four groups worked completely independently; I found out the names of the other three groups long after the reports were filed. The results, as I recall, were one very low forecast, one very high forecast, and two skeptical reports (including mine) in effect saying the error bound around the forecasts covered all reasonable policy alternatives. Thus the collective result confirmed the views of the two skeptical reports!

Here is my analysis. Perhaps this should have appeared as a short case study in Beautiful Evidence, but the idea never occurred to me.

What about now, 31 years later? My skepticism about resource forecasts might be confirmed or might not by a fresh analysis, which would reveal what a fresh analysis of the evidence would reveal. In policy relevant studies of evidence, there is too often a rage to conclude.

Ethanol, Ethanol Everywhere, Time to Stop and Think

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Elon Musk:

Ethanol (a.k.a. alcohol) will certainly grow as a business and serve as a partial solution to our energy problem, particularly given that it is now taking the place of the gasoline additive MTBE. However, even if large-scale cellulosic ethanol technology is perfected, I don’t believe it can become the primary solution to the world’s energy needs.

The often-used example of Brazil does not apply to most parts of the world and may not even apply to Brazil if they see high economic growth with its attendant energy demands. Brazil is in the tropics with an all year round growing season and an enormous amount of arable land relative to its population food requirements and the number of cars on the road.

In contrast, domestic ethanol as the primary solution will definitely not work for the world’s most populous countries, such as Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, etc. Those countries are either breaking even on domestic food production or are net importers. If you argue that ethanol is to be grown elsewhere and shipped, where are the vast tracts of unused arable land? And, bear in mind, the calories burned by two ton cars are much greater than those burned by 170 pound humans.

World’s Largest Oil Field in…. Colorado

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Robert Collier:

Underneath the high, scrub-covered rangeland of northwest Colorado is the world’s biggest oil field. Getting the oil out of the ground, however, is one of the world’s biggest headaches.

The area’s deposits of oil shale are believed to be larger than all the oil reserves of the Middle East. But past attempts to get at this oil locked in tarry rock have cost billions of dollars and raised the prospect of strip-mining large areas of the Rocky Mountain West.

Now, as the federal government makes another push to develop oil shale, Shell and other companies say they have developed techniques that may extract this treasure with much less environmental impact.

What goes around, comes around. The Western Slope oil shale project collapsed in the mid 1980’s – creating a deep Colorado recession.

Electric Cars & Monterey

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Martin Eberhard:

We were originally invited to participate in the McCall Motorsports Customer Appreciation Night at the Monterey Airport on Wednesday. But at the last minute a large Japanese luxury automaker, who happened to be a sponsor of the event, had a hissy fit about our being there. So we were disinvited. How can they be scared of little Tesla Motors? Oh well. We made the best of the day giving rides to press and prospective customers.

The Politics of High Fructose Corn Syrup and Does it Make You Fat?

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Alex Tabarrok:

I don’t know whether High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) acts more like fat than does sugar (compare here and here) but it’s worthwhile pointing out that HFCS is a child of the sugar quota. The import quotas raise the US price of sugar well above the world price (~24 cents per pound compared to ~9 cents per pound) and encourage consumption of HFCS. Reflecting this fact, the main defenders of the sugar quota are no longer Florida sugar growers but rather mid-West corn growers.

The HFCS business is a cartel – prices are the same, change quarterly on the same day and enjoy, as Tabarrok points out, subsidies. Years ago, working in the water and juice industry, I sent a letter to the anti-trust division complaining about this. A lawyer deep in the bowels of the justice department phoned me and said that “as long as Bob Dole is active on this issue, nothing will change”. I assume someone has replaced Dole as a friend to the corn processors.