Category: Real Estate

Kirkwood Jumps the Shark?

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Kathryn Reed:

Those who skied Kirkwood 20 or more years ago found a typical day lodge with a cafeteria and slow lifts. It was the mountain people came for. They still come for it, only now they don’t have to make the 40-mile trek into South Lake Tahoe to spend the night.

Off Highway 88 where Alpine, Amador and El Dorado counties meet, the Kirkwood Valley is growing up. Whether it grows with grace will be decided in the next few years.

Even with all the hammering and sawing, Kirkwood remains laid-back — and growth has come relatively slowly. Ten years ago, the first phase of the village opened with 19 condominiums. The resort installed its first high-speed quad chairlift in 2001, with its second in operation last ski season. Dining choices are still sparse, but more diverse. Pretentiousness is unheard of. The 2000 Census tallies Kirkwood’s population at 96 and Tim Cohee, president of Kirkwood Mountain Realty, says full-time residents still number fewer than 100.

I was one of those people who skied Kirkwood years ago. A Squaw Valley ski visit always included Jaguars and Mercedes-Benz (Oh Lord, Won’t you buy me a Mercedes-Benz), while a fun outing to Kirkwood found the Jeep / 4-Runner crowd enjoying the mountain. It is nice to stay on the mountain, but miles of condos in the valley certainly changes the alpine views.

Third Quarter Real Estate Market Data

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Dave Stark [PDF]:

We are currently witnessing a phenomenon that I have not
seen in my nearly 30 years in real estate brokerage. For the first
time in anyone’s memory, we are seeing a noticeable slowdown in sales despite continuing record low interest rates. I’ve experienced many soft markets before; most (1980 – 1982 particularly) were far more severe than this. But all of those were precipitated by rapidly rising interest rates. This one seems to be occurring even though rates have actually fallen (that’s right, fallen) over the past 60 to 90 days by nearly two thirds of a percentage point, remaining near all time lows. At this writing, 30 year rates are around 6.375%. What’s going on?

I’ve heard many explanations offered, and many have some validity. For starters, the Federal Reserve has raised short term interest rates steadily over the last two years. This has probably led many consumers to assume that mortgage rates were rising too. They did rise a little, but not much… they’re still within a percentage point or so of their lows. It’s also true, as you see below and on the following pages, that inventories have continued to rise, leading many to assume that the market is “slow,” since they see more for sale signs than they’re used to. Perhaps most importantly, the media has been relentlessly predicting a “bursting real estate bubble” for two years now, and they’ve seized on any evidence of a slowdown to fuel the gloomy predictions. While fears of a bursting bubble are utterly unfounded, especially here (see page 2), we’re hearing that many buyers are afraid to buy, thinking that real estate has become a bad investment on which they’ll lose money. A self fulfilling prophecy if ever there was one. Add in the fact that the fall is normally the slowest time of year anyway, and the market appears just plain tired after a sizzling 5 year run.

MaHunt

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Fascinating:


“Life consists with wildness….The most alive is the wildest…In Wildness is the preservation of the World.” Henry David Thoreau

“There are certain things that cannot be enjoyed by everybody. If everybody tries to enjoy them, nobody gets any pleasure out of them.” Robert Marshall

“Hunting partakes directly in Nature’s sacrament — transcending a vacuous voyeur to a guiding guardian.” James A. Schneider

“Everybody knows, for example, that the autumn landscape in the north woods is the land, plus a red maple, plus a ruffed grouse. In terms of conventional physics, the grouse represents only a millionth of either the mass or the energy of an acre. Yet subtract the grouse and the whole thing is dead. An enormous amount of some kind of motive power has been lost.” Aldo Leopold

“The sweetest hunts are stolen. To steal a hunt, either go far into the wilderness where no one has been, or else find some undiscovered place under everybody’s nose.” A Sand County Almanac by Aldo Leopold

“Remember that with large corporations and rich individuals gobbling up property to keep everyone out and conservancies, big government and its agencies devouring land through purchase and eminent domain condemnations to let everyone or no one in, there must be places preserved for “everyman/everywoman” plus one human companion to use unbothered by his/her brethren.” James A. Schneider

“Perhaps the hunter is the greatest friend of animals hunted, not excepting the Humane Society.” Henry David Thoreau

Jim Schneider, a UW Grad and Drexel Burnham Lambert alum is behind MaHunt intellectually and financially.

2nd Quarter 2006 Local Real Estate Market Summary

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Dave Stark [PDF]:

The chickens came home to roost a little bit in the second quarter of 2006, as sales of both single family homes and condominiums were down in all markets and price ranges when compared to the same period last year. However, if we look at the full year thus far, we see that the pace of sales is still roughly the same as it was two years ago in 2004. Overall residential sales were down 9.3% for the full MLS, and down 12.1% in Dane County. Inventories have continued to rise as well. The problem, particularly for sellers, remains the same; inventories are double what they were two years ago, and 50% to 70% higher than last year.

Days of inventory remain much the same as they were after the first quarter. However, it’s interesting to note that the number of days of active inventory rose very little from 2004 to 2005, then nearly doubled between 2005 and 2006. Even though inventories started rising last year, the rising pace of sales kept average selling times and absorption rates fairly level. This year, even the relatively modest downturn in sales has caused inventories to really back up.

Dave Stark is a long time friend and client.

Freedom to Farm: Program Pays $1.3B to People Who Don’t Farm

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Dan Morgan, Gilbert Gaul and Sarah Cohen:

Even though Donald R. Matthews put his sprawling new residence in the heart of rice country, he is no farmer. He is a 67-year-old asphalt contractor who wanted to build a dream house for his wife of 40 years.

Yet under a federal agriculture program approved by Congress, his 18-acre suburban lot receives about $1,300 in annual “direct payments,” because years ago the land was used to grow rice.

Matthews is not alone. Nationwide, the federal government has paid at least $1.3 billion in subsidies for rice and other crops since 2000 to individuals who do no farming at all, according to an analysis of government records by The Washington Post.

Some of them collect hundreds of thousands of dollars without planting a seed. Mary Anna Hudson, 87, from the River Oaks neighborhood in Houston, has received $191,000 over the past decade. For Houston surgeon Jimmy Frank Howell, the total was $490,709.

The Real Estate Market Source

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Dave Stark, a friend and long time client has published the first of what will be a quarterly look at the Madison area real estate market [1.2MB PDF]:

There could be no better illustration of the confusing nature of today’s discussions about real estate than the market in South Central Wisconsin in 2006. quarter. Despite relentless stories about the “bursting real estate bubble,” and “rising rates taking the steam out of the real estate market,” our local market remained robust in the first quarter.

As you’ll see in the accompanying charts, the overall level of sales activity is similar to a year ago. What has changed, however, is the relationship between the number of sales and the level of active inventory for sale. The result is that, while the overall level of demand is much like it was one year ago, sellers have 50 to 100% more competition on the market for the same number of buyers. The result: it feels slower to many sellers, whose houses may be sitting on the market longer than in the past. However, it remains our experience that homes in good condition that are priced competitively will still sell quickly, sometimes in a matter of days.

Eyes in the West Are on Federal Land Sale

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Julie Cart:

Its mild climate, stunning scenery and proximity to several national parks have helped make Washington County one of the five fastest-growing counties in the nation. But like many rural Western counties, it has little room to expand: 87% of its land is owned by the federal government.

Now, Utah’s congressional delegation has a plan to remedy the problem, one that is being closely watched by nearly a dozen Western counties with similar growing pains. The plan is also being scrutinized by conservationists who warn that it would set a dangerous precedent, making thousands of acres of public land available for private development as well as offering a windfall for local agencies and special deals for politically influential officials and property owners.

The Race to Catalog Sears Homes

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Sara Schaefer Munoz:

Marilyn Raschka spends many of her weekends driving around unfamiliar neighborhoods, knocking on doors and talking her way into strangers’ basements. Once downstairs, she breaks out her flashlight and shines it along exposed beams, hunting for a letter and some numbers that are each no bigger than a thumbprint.

The 61-year-old resident of Hartford, Wis., is part of a small cadre of historians and passionate amateurs on a mission to identify and protect homes made by Sears, Roebuck and Co. About 70,000 to 100,000 of them were sold through Sears catalogs from 1908 to 1940. Distressed that the houses are falling victim to the recent boom in teardowns and renovations, their fans are scouring neighborhoods across the country, snapping pictures and sometimes braving snakes and poison ivy to poke around basements and attics for the telltale stamps that mark the lumber in most of the catalog homes. Because people can be shy about the state of their basements, Ms. Raschka brings along photos of her own messy cellar to persuade them to let her in.

There are some Sears homes around Madison.

Lake Geneva Update

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Leslie Levine:

THE casual atmosphere and laid-back state of mind are what Mike Moses finds most appealing about Lake Geneva, a popular weekend destination in southeastern Wisconsin, about 80 miles from Chicago.

Sitting in Chuck’s, a popular gathering place in nearby Fontana, Mr. Moses, a Chicago accountant, noticed a $200,000 Lamborghini parked next to a beat-up old Jeep. “The beauty of Lake Geneva is that no one could’ve guessed the driver of the more expensive car,” said Mr. Moses, who bought a two-bedroom 1937 Cape Cod cottage in Lake Geneva two years ago. “Everyone’s wearing jeans and sweatshirts. No one is flashing their wealth.”

Vail at the Crossroads

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Nancy and I skied Vail years ago. It is a great mountain, but the term “village” really doesn’t apply any longer. Jared Jacang Maher asks if they must tear down a local landmark to save it. There’s been no shortage of controversy, including the defeat of two council members:

Crossroads not only stands at one of the town’s most prominent intersections, it’s a convergence point for wealth, power and mountain-sized egos, for small-town politics with big-city politicking. The official arguments may focus on topics like height and zoning, but citizens on both sides of the debate see the struggle as more epic, as a fight between Vail’s old-time founders and its younger newcomers for what the town is and what it should become. Emotions are high, and the stakes are huge. Because despite its theme-park attributes, Vail is a real place, with real residents who live and work here, who are born and die here, and who love and hate each others’ guts — all within town limits.

Like the facades of many of Vail’s early buildings, Crossroads is faded and cracked after decades of exposure to sunlight and snow. Built in 1969 on the East Meadow Drive corridor, the 60,000-square-foot, horseshoe-shaped complex wraps around a parking lot with three stories of condos sitting above a ground floor of retail. The two biggest tenants — Clark’s Market and the Crossroads Cinema — both pulled out last month, citing slow business and deteriorating facilities.

Reminds me a bit of the local Whole Foods / Hilldale / Sentry Foods battle.